Climate Bulletin For Sri Lanka (21 January 2022)

Highlights          

                   

 • Fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province from 22nd Jan – 25th Jan. Greater likelihood of wet tendency is predicted for Sri Lanka from Feb - Apr.

 • Heavy rainfall was experienced in the Northernprovince with max of 143.3 mm in Jaffna district on 17th Jan.

 • From 11th Jan - 18th Jan, up to 45 km/h Northeasterlies were experienced across the island.

 • Sea surface temperatures were 0.50C above neutral in the southern and northern seas and neutral around the rest of the island.

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Predictions

Rainfall

14-day prediction: 
NOAA NCEP models: 

From 19^th – 25^th  January:  

Total rainfall by Provinces

• 75 mm - Eastern
• 35 mm - North Central, Uva
• 25 mm - Northern
•  5 mm - Central, North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western

From 26^th January – 1^st February: 

Total rainfall by Provinces:

• 85 mm - Eastern
• 35 mm - North Central, Northern, Uva
• 15 mm - Central
•  5 mm - North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Western

MJO based OLR predictions:

For the next 15 days: 

MJO shall be active during 22^nd – 28^th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall in the South during 22^nd – 23^rd January and to the entire island from 24^th - 28^th January. MJO shall be neutral from 9^th January – 2^nd February to the entire island. 

Ocean State (Text Courtesy IRI)

Pacific Sea Sate: January 12, 2022 

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the tropical Pacific Ocean in mid-January. A large majority of the model forecasts indicates a continuation of La Niña until Northern Hemisphere spring and then transitioning to ENSO-neutral.

Indian Sea Sate

Sea surface temperatures were 0.5⁰C above neutral in the southern and northern seas and neutral around the rest of the island. 

Interpretation

Monitoring

Rainfall: 

During the last two weeks, there had been heavy rainfall over the following provinces: Northern. 

Wind: 

Northeasterly winds prevailed in the sea area and around the island last week. 

Temperature: 

The temperature anomalies were 1⁰C – 3⁰C above neutral in some parts of Sabaragamuwa district and neutral for the entire island last week, driven by the warm SST’s.

Predictions

Rainfall:

During the next week (22^nd January – 25^thJanuary) fairly heavy rainfall is predicted for Eastern province.

Temperature:

The temperature remains slightly above normal in the North Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Uva and Western provinces during 22^ndJanuary – 29^th January. 

Teleconnections:

La Nina - The SST forecast indicates that La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring.

MJO shall be active during 22^nd – 28^th January giving slightly suppressed rainfall in the South during 22^nd – 23^rd January and to the entire island from 24^th - 28^th January. MJO shall be neutral from 9^th January – 2^nd February to the entire island. 

Seasonal Precipitation: 

The precipitation forecast for the Feb-Apr season show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Sri Lanka.